Heather M. Archambault

NRC Postdoctoral Research Associate

Department of Meteorology • Naval Postgraduate School • 1 University Way, Monterey, CA 93943 • Email: hmarcham • at • nps.edu

An overview of my research at the Naval Postgraduate School (collaborators:  Profs. Pat Harr and Rich Moore)


LEFT: A diabatically driven disturbance forms within a region of strong baroclinity and frontogenesis downshear of a recurving and extratropically transitioning tropical cyclone (Typhoon Chaba, October 2010). Similar disturbances often develop in association with the recurvature and extratropical transition of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific basin.

The interaction of these disturbances with the extratropical flow can be difficult to forecast due to the challenge of representing diabatic processes in numerical models. I use gridded datasets, data collected in recent field campaigns, high-resolution model simulations, and global model ensemble prediction systems to explore the dynamics and predictability of these disturbances, which may

(1) act as seedlings of intense extratropical cyclones;

(2) induce ridge amplification and jet streak intensification as their convective outflow interacts with the extratropical flow; and

(3) produce heavy rains in advance of landfalling tropical cyclones, exacerbating flooding potential.